GO WITH CONDITIONS

Scenario Comparison Analysis

DOWNSIDE · BASE CASE · UPSIDE — Side-by-side KPI comparison with variance analysis · All values recalculate from live assumptions

DOWNSIDE
Selling Price₹7,000/t
Yr1 Utilisation55%
Steady Util80%
RM Cost₹3,000/t
Project IRR46.5%
NPV @14%₹14.2 Cr
BASE CASE
Selling Price₹8,000/t
Yr1 Utilisation75%
Steady Util95%
RM Cost₹2,500/t
Project IRR108.9%
NPV @14%₹39.1 Cr
UPSIDE
Selling Price₹9,000/t
Yr1 Utilisation85%
Steady Util100%
RM Cost₹2,200/t
Project IRR184.5%
NPV @14%₹61.1 Cr

Full KPI Comparison — All Scenarios with Variance Analysis

Delta % shown relative to Base Case · Green = favourable · Red = adverse

KPIDOWNSIDEBASE CASEUPSIDE↓ vs Base↑ vs Base
Returns
Project IRR46.5%108.9%184.5%57.3%69.4%
Equity IRR80.5%231.9%423.6%65.3%82.6%
NPV @ 14%₹14.2 Cr₹39.1 Cr₹61.1 Cr63.7%56.4%
Payback PeriodYr 2.5Yr 1.1Yr 0.6128.0%45.1%
Revenue
Year 1 Revenue₹11.6 Cr₹18.0 Cr₹22.9 Cr35.8%27.5%
Year 2 Revenue₹17.3 Cr₹23.5 Cr₹27.8 Cr26.3%18.4%
Year 5 Revenue₹18.9 Cr₹25.7 Cr₹30.4 Cr26.3%18.4%
Profitability
Yr2 EBITDA₹4.11 Cr₹9.94 Cr₹15.1 Cr58.7%51.8%
Yr2 EBITDA Margin23.7%42.3%54.3%43.9%28.2%
Yr2 PAT₹2.36 Cr₹6.82 Cr₹10.8 Cr65.3%57.8%
Yr2 PAT Margin13.7%29.0%38.7%52.9%33.3%
Debt Service
DSCR (Year 2)3.53x9.58x16.53x63.1%72.5%
DSCR (Year 3)4.24x10.96x18.65x61.3%70.2%
Capital
Total Project Cost₹7.00 Cr₹6.25 Cr₹5.50 Cr12.0%12.0%
Yr2 Gross Margin27.9%45.4%56.9%38.6%25.3%

Year 2 Financial Performance — Scenario Comparison

Revenue · EBITDA · PAT · FCF · ₹ Crores

Downside Risk Assessment

  • ▸IRR drops to 46.5% — still above 10% floor
  • ▸NPV: ₹14.2 Cr — positive, project viable
  • ▸Mitigate via offtake contracts and RM cost hedging
  • ▸DSCR: 3.53x — above lender covenant

Base Case — Bankable

  • ▸IRR: 108.9% — strong return on capital
  • ▸NPV: ₹39.1 Cr — significant value creation
  • ▸Conservative assumptions — no carbon credits, no solar
  • ▸DSCR: 9.58x — comfortably above 1.5x

Upside Scenario

  • ▸IRR: 184.5% — highly attractive
  • ▸NPV: ₹61.1 Cr — exceptional value
  • ▸Achievable with NTPC/TPP offtake + feedstock management
  • ▸Carbon credits (₹3–5 Cr/yr) remain additional upside