GO WITH CONDITIONS

Executive Dashboard

Shiva Green Energy · 5 TPH Biomass Pellet Plant · Lean Base Case · No Solar · Aug 2026

GO WITH CONDITIONS10-Year HorizonCONFIDENTIAL
Scenario
PRIMARY KPI

Project IRR (10-Year)

108.9%

Equity IRR: 231.9%

Unlevered project return on total capital. Target > 14% WACC.

Project NPV @ 14%

₹39.1 Cr

Discount Rate 14%

Simple Payback

Yr 1.1

Project FCF basis

Year 1 Revenue

₹18.0 Cr

75% util · 22,500 T

Year 2 Revenue

₹23.5 Cr

95% util · steady state

Year 2 PAT

₹6.82 Cr

Margin: 29.0%

DSCR (Year 2)

9.58x

Target > 1.5x (CGTMSE)

Revenue vs Total Cost

10-Year trend · ₹ Crores

Year 1–10

Funding Structure

Equity vs Debt · ₹6.25 Cr total

Partner Equity

₹2.50 Cr

40.0%

Debt (CGTMSE)

₹3.75 Cr

60.0%

EBITDA & PAT Trend

Operating profitability · ₹ Crores

Yr2 EBITDA ₹9.94 Cr

CAPEX Breakdown

Uses of funds

Cumulative Project Cash Flow — Payback Visualization

Payback at Year ~1.1 · ₹ Crores

Payback Yr 2

Investment Committee Recommendation

GO WITH CONDITIONS

Overall Project Data Confidence Score: 7.0 / 10 — rises to 8.5+/10 once offtake LOI, final quotes, incorporation and lease are complete.

1

Convert partnership firm into a Private Limited Company with clear shareholding.

2

Execute clean, registered 30-year lease deed for the 10–12 acre parcel.

3

Obtain at least one written vendor registration/LOI from NTPC, Rosa or equivalent TPP.

4

Finalise machinery quotation from proven OEM for 5 TPH line within ₹3.0–3.5 Cr envelope.

5

Secure CGTMSE-backed term loan + WC sanction with DSCR covenant ≥ 1.50x.

6

Maintain minimum ₹1.4 Cr working capital buffer at COD; do not treat WC as residual.

7

Complete environmental / consent-to-establish clearances before civil works.

8

(Optional) Explore Phase-2 500–1000 kW solar once Year-1 cash flows are proven.

Bank Financeable

CGTMSE eligible — with proper DPR, offtake evidence, Udyam registration, DSCR covenant

Investor Attractive

More attractive at 5 TPH than 2 TPH — better scale economics for strategic and financial investors

Key Risk

Feedstock supply + offtake volume shortfall are the two highest-impact risks. Mitigate with contracts before drawdown.

Model Notes & Assumptions

  • 1.Solar has been dropped from the Base Case. Power cost is full grid (₹1,100/tonne).
  • 2.Carbon credits treated as Upside only — not included in Base P&L.
  • 3.All amber cells on Assumptions sheet are editable inputs — changes recalculate instantly.
  • 4.Model uses conservative-to-realistic assumptions for bankability.
  • 5.Entity currently partnership firm — conversion to Pvt Ltd recommended before large debt.
  • 6.CAPEX scaled non-linearly: machinery ~2.5×, civil ~1.9×, WC ~3.5× vs 2 TPH baseline.
  • 7.10-year explicit forecast with simplified debt amortisation. No terminal value in IRR/NPV.