Financial Projections

10-Year P&L · Cash Flow · Returns · Scenario Analysis · Risk Matrix — all values recalculate from Assumptions

Profit & Loss Statement — 5 TPH Lean Base Case — No Solar — 10 Year

All values in ₹ · Formulas preserved from Excel model

Particulars	Yr 0 (Const)	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6	Year 7	Year 8	Year 9	Year 10
Production (Tonnes)	—	22,500	28,500	28,500	28,500	28,500	28,500	28,500	28,500	28,500	28,500
Utilisation %	—	75.0%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%

Pellet Sales Revenue	—	₹18.0 Cr	₹23.5 Cr	₹24.2 Cr	₹24.9 Cr	₹25.7 Cr	₹26.4 Cr	₹27.2 Cr	₹28.0 Cr	₹28.9 Cr	₹29.7 Cr
Variable Costs
Raw Material Cost	—	₹5.63 Cr	₹7.13 Cr	₹7.13 Cr	₹7.13 Cr	₹7.13 Cr	₹7.13 Cr	₹7.13 Cr	₹7.13 Cr	₹7.13 Cr	₹7.13 Cr
Power (Grid — No Solar)	—	₹2.48 Cr	₹3.13 Cr	₹3.13 Cr	₹3.13 Cr	₹3.13 Cr	₹3.13 Cr	₹3.13 Cr	₹3.13 Cr	₹3.13 Cr	₹3.13 Cr
Labour + Maint + Pack + Other	—	₹2.02 Cr	₹2.56 Cr	₹2.56 Cr	₹2.56 Cr	₹2.56 Cr	₹2.56 Cr	₹2.56 Cr	₹2.56 Cr	₹2.56 Cr	₹2.56 Cr
Total Variable Cost	—	₹10.1 Cr	₹12.8 Cr	₹12.8 Cr	₹12.8 Cr	₹12.8 Cr	₹12.8 Cr	₹12.8 Cr	₹12.8 Cr	₹12.8 Cr	₹12.8 Cr
Gross Profit	—	₹7.88 Cr	₹10.7 Cr	₹11.4 Cr	₹12.1 Cr	₹12.8 Cr	₹13.6 Cr	₹14.4 Cr	₹15.2 Cr	₹16.1 Cr	₹16.9 Cr
Fixed Costs
Land Lease	—	₹0.18 Cr	₹0.19 Cr	₹0.19 Cr	₹0.20 Cr	₹0.21 Cr	₹0.22 Cr	₹0.23 Cr	₹0.24 Cr	₹0.25 Cr	₹0.26 Cr
Salaries & Admin	—	₹0.42 Cr	₹0.44 Cr	₹0.45 Cr	₹0.47 Cr	₹0.49 Cr	₹0.51 Cr	₹0.53 Cr	₹0.55 Cr	₹0.57 Cr	₹0.60 Cr
Insurance, Security & Misc	—	₹0.09 Cr	₹0.09 Cr	₹0.10 Cr	₹0.10 Cr	₹0.11 Cr	₹0.11 Cr	₹0.11 Cr	₹0.12 Cr	₹0.12 Cr	₹0.13 Cr
Total Fixed Cost (ex-Dep)	—	₹0.69 Cr	₹0.72 Cr	₹0.75 Cr	₹0.78 Cr	₹0.81 Cr	₹0.84 Cr	₹0.87 Cr	₹0.91 Cr	₹0.94 Cr	₹0.98 Cr
EBITDA	—	₹7.18 Cr	₹9.94 Cr	₹10.6 Cr	₹11.3 Cr	₹12.0 Cr	₹12.8 Cr	₹13.5 Cr	₹14.3 Cr	₹15.1 Cr	₹15.9 Cr
Depreciation (SLM 10 yrs on ₹4.40 Cr)	—	₹0.44 Cr	₹0.44 Cr	₹0.44 Cr	₹0.44 Cr	₹0.44 Cr	₹0.44 Cr	₹0.44 Cr	₹0.44 Cr	₹0.44 Cr	₹0.44 Cr
EBIT	—	₹6.75 Cr	₹9.50 Cr	₹10.2 Cr	₹10.9 Cr	₹11.6 Cr	₹12.3 Cr	₹13.1 Cr	₹13.9 Cr	₹14.7 Cr	₹15.5 Cr
Interest on Debt	—	₹0.41 Cr	₹0.41 Cr	₹0.34 Cr	₹0.28 Cr	₹0.21 Cr	₹0.14 Cr	₹0.07 Cr	—	—	—
Profit Before Tax (PBT)	—	₹6.33 Cr	₹9.09 Cr	₹9.83 Cr	₹10.6 Cr	₹11.4 Cr	₹12.2 Cr	₹13.0 Cr	₹13.9 Cr	₹14.7 Cr	₹15.5 Cr
Tax (25%)	—	₹1.58 Cr	₹2.27 Cr	₹2.46 Cr	₹2.65 Cr	₹2.85 Cr	₹3.05 Cr	₹3.25 Cr	₹3.47 Cr	₹3.67 Cr	₹3.88 Cr
PROFIT AFTER TAX (PAT)	—	₹4.75 Cr	₹6.82 Cr	₹7.38 Cr	₹7.95 Cr	₹8.54 Cr	₹9.14 Cr	₹9.76 Cr	₹10.4 Cr	₹11.0 Cr	₹11.6 Cr
Margin Analysis
Gross Margin %	—	43.8%	45.4%	47.0%	48.5%	50.0%	51.5%	52.9%	54.3%	55.6%	56.9%
EBITDA Margin %	—	39.9%	42.3%	43.9%	45.4%	46.9%	48.3%	49.7%	51.0%	52.3%	53.6%
PAT Margin %	—	26.4%	29.0%	30.5%	31.9%	33.3%	34.6%	35.9%	37.1%	38.1%	39.1%

Revenue escalation applied from Year 2 at 3.0% p.a. · Fixed costs inflated at 4.0% p.a. from Year 2 · Depreciation SLM on ₹₹4.40 Cr over 10 years · Tax = MAX(0, PBT × 25%)